Kwara zoning debate intensifies as 2027 governorship race draws interest from all zones, raising tension and fresh political calculations
Political analysts have warned that the Kwara zoning debate may trigger deeper divisions ahead of the 2027 governorship election, despite decades of broad participation across the state’s three senatorial districts.
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Since 1999, aspirants from Kwara Central, Kwara South and Kwara North have contested governorship primaries, yet Kwara Central has held power for eighteen years while Kwara South has governed for eight.
Analysts say the dominance of Kwara Central stems from voter strength, incumbency advantage and the long-standing political influence centred in Ilorin.
As the 2027 election cycle gathers momentum, the race is already crowded, particularly in Kwara Central.
Senator Salihu Mustapha, Ambassador Yahaya Seriki, Professor Abubakar Suleiman and engineer Sulaiman Bolakale Kawu are among those showing interest.
Their early moves reflect the confidence of political stakeholders in the Central zone, who believe the governorship remains within reach.
In Kwara North, notable aspirants include former Speaker Salihu Yakubu Danladi and Senator Sadiq Suleiman, both of whom hope the renewed agitation for rotation will favour their zone.
Behind the public declarations, insiders say Governor AbdulRahman AbdulRazaq supports zoning in principle and is not opposed to the “Kwara North Lokan” sentiment, which argues that it is time for the North to produce a governor.
However, this has not quelled pressure from political actors in Kwara Central, who remain determined to secure the ruling party’s ticket.
Recent visits by Kwara North traditional leaders to their counterparts in Kwara South have fuelled further speculation.
With no leading figure from Kwara South declaring interest, many question why the zone appears drawn into pre-negotiations that have yet to be formally opened.
Observers argue that Kwara North might have gained more traction by directing their appeals toward Ilorin’s powerful royal institutions, which anchor the political weight of the Central zone.
Political historians note that the Ilorin establishment has never ceded power solely through zoning appeals.
Even when former Governor Bukola Saraki backed AbdulFatai Ahmed from Kwara South, the arrangement was widely viewed as one in which Saraki’s political hierarchy remained intact.
Critics say this backdrop explains why Kwara South appears increasingly vulnerable, with rising insecurity, underdevelopment and economic hardship affecting communities across the zone.
The emerging “Igbomina Lokan” movement in Kwara South mirrors the northern agitation but is seen by some analysts as a strategy that may ultimately fragment southern and northern ambitions, leaving the field clear for another Central candidate.
Analysts caution that no modern democracy secures victory on ethnic sentiment alone, noting that parties prioritise candidates with broad appeal and proven competence.
As political manoeuvring intensifies, civil society groups are urging leaders to focus on integrity, capacity and statewide electability rather than ethnic messaging or patronage networks.
They argue that Kwara’s progress may depend on rejecting divisive tactics and embracing candidates with the ability to unite the electorate.
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The 2027 transition, they say, will determine whether Kwara can break from entrenched patterns or whether familiar power strategies will once again define the state’s political future.
