Segun Sowunmi predicts close contest, projects state-by-state performance outlook
Political analyst and former ally of the African Democratic Congress, ADC, Segun Sowunmi, on Wednesday, June 25, 2026, projected that Nigeria’s 2027 presidential election could be a closely contested race between President Bola Tinubu and former Vice President Atiku Abubakar.
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Speaking during an appearance on Arise Television’s Morning Show, Sowunmi suggested that both political figures remain the dominant forces shaping the next presidential contest, despite shifting alliances and evolving regional dynamics.
He described the expected outcome as competitive, arguing that the race may ultimately be defined by state-by-state performance across Nigeria’s geopolitical zones.
“The election is between Tinubu and Atiku no doubt about it and I believe that he’s going to win significantly better numbers in the Southeast because those are not places they usually get better numbers before,” Sowunmi said.
He added that President Tinubu is expected to perform strongly in the South-West and North-Central regions, while also improving his standing in parts of the South-South compared to previous electoral cycles.
According to him, the North-West and North-East zones may prove decisive, with political actors, party structures and influential stakeholders playing a critical role in shaping voter outcomes.
“For the Northwest, you have to look at where the big players are, the big boys that control the election and the big money,” he said.
Sowunmi also referenced key political figures and business influencers in northern states, suggesting that their alignment could significantly affect electoral dynamics in states such as Kano and Katsina.
He noted that political realignments in those regions, including shifts among former governors and influential stakeholders, could reshape traditional voting patterns.
The analyst further suggested that while Tinubu may face challenges in certain northern strongholds, he could still secure broader national coverage depending on coalition strength and governance performance ahead of the election.
His comments have added to ongoing political debate around the 2027 presidential race, which is already attracting early analysis and speculation across party lines and media platforms.
Political observers say such projections highlight the evolving nature of Nigeria’s electoral landscape, where regional influence, party structure and elite alignment continue to play decisive roles.
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As the election cycle gradually builds momentum, both supporters and critics of the current administration are expected to intensify their strategic positioning ahead of what many analysts describe as a highly competitive contest.
